Policy Research Institute, Narayanhiti

A policy discussion on the “Policy Implications of Nepal’s Population Projections” took place at the Policy Research Institute on April 8, 2025. Prof. Dr. Samir KC, Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria and CEO of the Population and Statistics Research Hub (PSRHUB) in Nepal, led the session.

Dr. Deepak Kumar Khadka, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, opened the session by introducing Prof. KC and his team—Jibesh Acharya, Divya Shakya, and Sambriddhi Malla—who were contributors to the Thematic Report on Nepal Population Projection (2021–2051) (Thematic Report VIII). This report, based on the National Population and Housing Census 2021, was recently published by the National Statistics Office. Prof. KC is also the founder of PSR HUB, which aims to build a statistically informed society in Nepal and develop a Population-based Systems Model (PopSyM).

The Executive Chairperson of the Policy Research Institute, Dr. Lekhnath Sharma, welcomed the presenters with a short reflection on using demographics in policy decisions. Prof. KC began his presentation by sharing the research results on ‘What do Nepalese define as a good life?’, categorized demographically according to gender (men, women) and region (urban, rural).

Overall, the presentation was delivered in three major sections.

First, population issues in Nepal, such as aging, decreasing fertility rate (population growth rate), migration, and gender disparity, were highlighted. Prof. KC explained that population projection offers a robust framework for long-term policy formulation and planning strategies, providing insights for setting national and subnational targets across various development paradigms.

In the second section, Prof. KC described the hierarchical cohort component model used in the report. Results were generated through an empirical-based demographic model at the district level followed by projections of municipalities and wards whilst aggregating district data for the province and national levels. He provided a brief description of the conceptual framework for population projection and elaborated on the demographic trends and patterns based on three future demographic scenarios, viz. medium scenario (progressive Nepal), high scenario (prosperous, sustainable Nepal), and low scenario (least developed country Nepal).

Third, the wide-ranging utility of such projections was discussed, including applications in the health sector (e.g., vaccine requirement estimation), education sector (enrollment rate prediction at a basic level), urban planning, economic sector, and ethnicity- and gender-based analysis.

The study report offered findings of paramount importance in policymaking with predictions like declining fertility rate, high sex ratio at birth, improvement in mortality rates, and changing patterns of brain drain. Several policy recommendations were proposed to address the upcoming challenges of population dynamics. These included financial incentives (such as tax benefits, parental leave policies, childcare subsidies, and flexible work arrangements) for increasing fertility rates, increasing access to affordable and comprehensive healthcare to facilitate healthy aging, and creation of SMEs in rural areas to generate jobs and encourage agribusiness for reducing internal migration.

The presentation prompted active engagement from researchers and interns, who raised insightful questions and suggestions, inspiring new avenues for policy-focused research. The session concluded with a vote of thanks from Dr. Khadka and closing remarks by Dr. Sharma.

Photo credit: Bimal Chandra Sharma
Event note by: Soniya Bashyal

Invitees:
Professor Dr. Samir KC (Senior Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria)
Jibesh Acharya (Statistician, Population and Statistics Research Hub)
Divya Shakya (Statistician, Population and Statistics Research Hub)
Sambriddhi Malla (Research and Development Manager, Population and Statistics Research Hub)

Participants:|
Prof. Dr. Lekhnath Sharma (Executive Chairperson, PRI)
Dr. Deepak Kumar Khadka (Senior Research Fellow, PRI)
Dr. Mohan Kumar Sharma (Senior Research Fellow, PRI)
Dr. Niranjan Devkota (Research Fellow, PRI)
Dr. Subash Adhikari (Research Fellow, PRI)
Dr. Prabhat Raj Dahal (Research Fellow, PRI)
Ashok Pandey (Research Fellow, PRI)
Dr. Maheswar Giri (Associated Research Fellow, PRI)
Gopal Acharya (Associated Research Fellow, PRI)
Rija Manandhar (Analyst, PRI)
Soniya Bashyal (Analyst, PRI)
Bimal Chandra Sharma (Library Management Coordinator, PRI)
Bom Bahadur Khadka (Accountant, Gorkhapatra Corporation)
Ashish Bhandari (Intern, PRI)
Dhiraj Bhatta (Intern, PRI)
Bijaya Koirala (Intern, PRI)
Snehi Rijal (Intern, PRI)
Satish Sapkota (Intern, PRI)